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Topic 1: The Situation in Yemen

Starting in 2004, the Middle Eastern state of Yemen has seen a rise in levels of violence and instability. This latest conflict began in Yemen’s northern governorate of Saada and has since spread to the outskirts of Yemen’s capital city, Sanaa. Although the International Crisis Group described the conflict as a “time bomb”, the situation in Yemen has received notably little international media coverage. Nonetheless, a breakdown in stability in the nation would have a far-reaching and grave impact on the security of the region.

The current conflict pits a rebel group, known as the Huthis, against Yemen’s government. Currently in a truce phase, the situation is still fragile; as on and off violent escalations (since 2004) threatens to intensify the conflict even further. In January of 2010 United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Yemen as a “top concern” stating that the situation in the country was “getting worse and worse.” She also called upon the, “international community to make it clear to Yemen that there are expectations and conditions to our continuing support for the government...” indicating that the United States may begin to take a harder line on violence in the nation. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon echoes Secretary Clinton’s concerns by recently describing the situation as “worrying”.Recent instability in Yemen is particularly concerning because the nation previously experienced two decades of relative stability. The roots of this recent outbreak in violence lie in a police operation designed to arrest a former parliament member: which then grew to include a growing number of local tribes. The foundations for this conflict stem far back in Yemen’s history. Like many nations at the time, Yemen experienced a Cold War split between conservative and Marxist factions which divided the country in half and provoked two civil wars. Upon reunification of the nation in 1990, the conservative North came to dominate the South, causing another short, but bloody civil war. These civil wars and intermittent declarations of independence by South Yemen tipped the delicate power-sharing balance between Yemen’s two principal sectarian identities, Zaydism, and Shafei Sunnism. “Internal mediation has repeatedly failed” and the international community has not yet fully recognized “the Saada conflict's destabilizing potential or pressured the government to shift course” (International Crisis Group). Against circumstances of rising violence, the American State Department has repeatedly warned the global community that, “Yemen could deteriorate into another Afghanistan” serving as a haven for terrorist activity and perhaps even creating a ripple effect of instability in the Middle East. The current Saada conflict “might not be the most covered internationally, but it carries grave risks for Yemen’s political, sectarian, and social equilibrium.”

Topic 2: The Situation in Jammu and Kashmir

The conflict in Kashmir is one of the longest-standing territorial disputes in the world. In August 1946 following the independence of the Indian subcontinent from Great Britain, all the rulers of the 565 princely states were given the choice to join either the new dominion of India or that of Pakistan. The ruler of Jammu and Kashmir wavered indecisively over the decision struggling to reconcile his Hindu identity with the predominantly Muslim identity of his people. He opted to sign “a standstill” agreement with Pakistan that allowed trade, travel, and communication to continue without a formal decision on Kashmir’s status. Following an invasion by Pakistani tribesmen in 1947, the then-governor of the region opted to temporarily accede to India for security reasons, thus beginning the first Indian/ Pakistani war over the territory.

As Kashmir joined India, India would promise that a plebiscite was to be held to determine the ultimate future of the territory. This referendum has yet, however, to take place despite four resolutions passed by United Nations in 1948 calling for such a measure. Some believe that India refuses to honor this original commitment because of fears the territory may vote to join Pakistan instead. Two wars later, and even today the referendum remains in limbo and the issue of the territory’s future remains more uncertain than ever. On January 1, 1949, the United Nations brokered a ceasefire between the two parties to the conflict (India and Pakistan) with 65 percent of the territory under Indian control and the rest under Pakistani control. This arrangement was intended to be temporary, but this Line of Control remains the de facto border between these two uneasy neighbors. Fighting in the region again broke out in 1965, and the two uneasy neighbors fought another war over the territory in 1971. Both India and Pakistan have pledged to solve the conflict peacefully even as cross border violence continues.

The challenges to brokering a peace agreement in Kashmir are compounded by the fact that both India and Pakistan have nuclear capabilities. In fact, several sources, including Jane’s Intelligence Review and the Defense Department reports maintain that “Pakistan’s motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons program is to counter their principal rival India, which has superior conventional forces.” In light of increased efforts by the global community to end nuclear proliferation, the issue of Pakistan and India’s conflict over Kashmir will set a precedent for future interactions between these nuclear powers.

The human rights toll associated with the conflict also continues to rise and the unresolved nature regarding Kashmir’s status leaves the door open for future violations. Amnesty International and the Kashmir Quarterly (a publication of the Kashmiri-Canadian Council) human rights violations have mainly been committed by the Indian army against Kashmiris of Muslim ethnicity. Allegations include disappearances, torture, extrajudicial killings and rape of Muslim women. While many of the worst abuses committed by the Indian army subsided at the turn of the century, these past grievances remain unresolved and the current uncertainly over the future of the territory leaves the door open for future violations. In the past two years the mass graves of approximately 1,000 individuals were exhumed from the Kashmir Valley but no judicial recourse has been sought for any of these victims. Unless the root causes of the conflict are resolved, human rights violations as well as tension and violence will continue in the territory.