Introduction

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is changing as a result of political, economic, and social shifts. Since August 2025, the country has faced political conflict linked to Milorad Dodik, the former President of Republika Srpska. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has also met to review BiH’s future in a global context. BiH leaders later sent in their Growth Agenda (GA) to the European Commission to secure funding. The GA acts as a way to better align with the European Union (EU).

The Presidential Election in Republika Srpska (RS)

On August 1, 2025, the Constitutional Court of BiH confirmed its judgment and sentenced former RS President Milorad Dodik to one year in prison. He was punished for knowingly defying the authority of the International High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina (HR), Christian Schmidt. Dodik signed decrees that stopped official state decisions and court rulings from being published or enforced in Republika Srpska. Thus, he was also banned from holding office for six years. Dodik’s mandate was revoked, and he stepped down as president.

On October 18, 2025, the RS appointed Ana Trisic Babic as the interim president. Babic shares a close relationship with Dodik. She also served a key role in foreign relations. Formally, the RS government has said that Dodik has lost his power. At the same time, it called the ruling “unconstitutional and politically motivated.” Dodik still receives support from other international leaders. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić supports him. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban also supports him. This support is mostly diplomatic. Leaders in Budapest have said they will block EU sanctions and have also provided loans and aid packages with hopes of stabilizing the RS economy.

For years, Dodik has openly campaigned for Republika Srpska to become independent, often framing that goal as eventual unification with Serbia. Recently, though, he claimed that RS cannot simply declare secession. Instead, he argues that RS is bound by the Dayton Peace Agreement as a party to an international contract, and therefore, the only legitimate path forward would be to withdraw from that agreement, not to unilaterally secede. This shift may reflect increased political pressure on Dodik. At the same time, divisions within Bosnia and Herzegovina’s government have intensified. Officials aligned with Dodik are increasingly at odds with those who oppose his agenda, deepening existing fractures and contributing to broader political instability. These internal disputes have also drawn in external actors, with different states signaling support for opposing positions, further internationalizing the crisis. The US, the UK, and Germany have increased sanctions against RS. Further, they have shown support for the HR’s prosecutions against Dodik. Russia and China have utilized the UNSC to challenge the authority of the HR.

On November 23, 2025, citizens voted in favor of Sinisa Karan as the new president of RS. Karan represents Dodik’s party, the Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD). The outcome of the election shows that, regardless of Dodik’s decline in authority, support remains within the RS for secession initiatives. Karan, who is an ally of Dodik, has pledged to continue Dodik’s legacy “with even greater force.” Dodik remains committed to his political goals despite his ban from office. He has told his constituents that Karan’s “victory will be my victory too.”

UNSC Action

On October 31, 2025, the UNSC met to discuss the EU Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR Althea). Its mandate was set to end on November 2, 2025, if no action was taken. EUFOR Althea was launched in December 2004 to maintain the safety of BiH, and it is renewed every year. At the meeting, all agreed to pass Resolution 2795. This extends the mission for another year. The resolution also notes BiH’s path toward joining the EU. It highlights several problems about the unstable political state within the country.

There are still many arguments about the HR’s power. Serbia and Russia spoke out against Christian Schmidt’s office, claiming it is biased. Despite these tensions, the US and France have discussed ways to stop things from getting worse. Their efforts include outlawing secessionist laws from the RS.

Adoption of the GA for the EU Growth Plan

On September 30, 2025, BiH submitted the GA. This agenda lists the reforms needed to get EU money. The Growth Plan is a wide-reaching initiative to align the Western Balkans with the EU economy. The Growth Plan also supports Western Balkan countries’ accession to the EU. Marta Kos is the EU Commissioner for Enlargement. She stated that their ambition is for the Western Balkans to “progress in harmony…[in] full alignment with EU laws and values.”

A core aspect of the Growth Plan is its large funding for development. This funding focuses on roads, energy, and the internet, among other improvements for citizens of the region. Initially, EUR 1.085 billion was allocated to BiH. However, a lack of support within the country caused delays. This issue resulted in BiH failing to finalize the GA by the deadline in July. Consequently, the European Commission decreased funds by ten percent and set a new deadline of September 30, 2025. BiH secured its funding after submitting the GA to the European Commission within hours of the new deadline.

The reforms of the GA alone seek to bring large changes. These changes aim to improve BiH as a country. These include the use of an e-governance framework to expedite government work and improve citizens’ interactions with the government. They invest in expanding early childhood education and internet access for schools. Moreover, the reforms emphasize addressing corruption, crime, and the justice system. Collectively, these reforms strengthen BiH. They help align the state with other EU member states to potentially gain membership in the future.

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