Introduction

In the second half of 2025, Taiwan faced changes at home and outside the country. At home, shifts within the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) raised concern about the future of Taiwan’s politics. These two parties form the Pan-Blue Coalition. They act as the main opposition to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Additionally, Taiwan is not part of many global forums because it lacks formal state recognition. Currently, China also continues to challenge Taiwan’s right to self-rule through its alliances, causing concern for Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Change in Opposition Party leadership

The KMT has recently elected chairperson Cheng Li-wun to replace Eric Chu after backlash. At the same time, the TPP faces a corruption trial of its founder, Ko Wen-je. The departure and controversy of two major figures in Taiwan’s domestic politics mark changes in public affairs and party politics.

Cheng Li-wun became a key leader in the recent recall elections. She brought together political leaders across politics. She formed an “outside the party opposition alliance.” The alliance worked against DPP efforts to unseat KMT legislators in the Legislative Yuan. She condemned the DPP, calling their processes “unconstitutional” and “aimed at ‘wiping out’ opposition.” She also called the DPP a minority that disrespects the legislative majority. Likewise, she refers to President Lai’s administration as authoritarian.

Cheng, along with members of the KMT, advocates for cutting the national defense budget. They warn Taiwan against relying on the US and call for Taiwan not to interfere with US-China relations. Cheng was elected as party chair of the KMT in November 2025. This makes her the KMT presidential candidate in 2028. Many former Taiwanese presidents have gone from party chair to president. Her appointment as party chair sets the stage for the future elections and the increased divides in Taiwanese party politics.

TPP founder Ko Wen-je is currently facing a corruption trial for allegedly taking bribes while in office as the mayor of Taipei. Rejecting the DPP’s offer to represent him, Ko ran in the 2014 Taipei Mayoral Elections, serving as the Pan-Green candidate. He won the elections and served two back-to-back terms as the mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022. During his time in office, he founded the TPP as a third-party alternative to the increasingly polarized DPP and KMT. He ran in the 2024 Presidential Elections for the TPP and came in third.

Soon after, he was accused of accepting bribes during his term. Taipei courts looked into his time in office as mayor and his campaign, then charged him with up to 28.5 years. As of September 2025, he was released on a NTD 70 million bail, ending his detention. Despite this, he has denied the allegations, claiming that the DPP is persecuting him for political reasons. Ko has since stepped back from his position as TPP chairperson, with Huang Kuo-chang as his replacement. However, Ko remains influential in domestic politics as a wild card in the previous two-party system. TPP membership continues to grow, especially among younger generations, due to its policies addressing housing prices and low wages. However, there are also concerns about the original vision of TPP being abandoned under Huang, as he draws closer to the KMT, often playing a subordinate role instead of acting as a third option. It is important to consider the impact of the TPP on the future of Taiwan, with its growing pro-China, KMT-allied position.

Taiwan’s International Status

Cross-strait tensions have grown recently. China and Taiwan relations remain poor, and Taiwan’s international status worsens. Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to claim that Taiwan is a part of China. In response, Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai stated that a “return [to China] is not an option – that is very clear.” China’s recent “one country, two systems” proposal aimed to annex Taiwan. This would be under similar governance conditions as Hong Kong and Macau. This raises questions regarding the future of Taiwan, despite the proposal being rejected by the Taiwanese government.

Taiwan’s status as a sovereign state continues to create tension between Taiwan and China. At present, only a few countries keep formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This number continues to decline as China gains more power on the global stage. Even without formal recognition, many countries still trade with Taiwan and maintain informal diplomatic contact. Taiwan relies on “Track 1.5” and “Track 2” diplomacy, which takes place outside official government channels. Under this system, Taiwanese representatives act in a personal or unofficial role. Non-state actors, such as NGOs, scholars, and former officials, may also take part in these talks.

Fiji has formal ties with China, but a Fijian UN diplomat, Filipo Tarakinikini, met with Taiwan’s Vice President in November 2026. China objected because Fiji follows the “One China” policy. China said the meeting broke trust between the two countries. This incident shows how global disputes can strain relationships between previously close allies. Taiwan argues that it is an independent state and has the right to meet with foreign leaders, whereas China still claims that Taiwan is part of the mainland.

Additionally, tensions continue to rise as Japan reaffirms its commitment to protecting Taiwan and its people. On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae responded to a question regarding Taiwan’s position with China. She stated that with the use of military force, Japan would have no choice but to enact a survival-threatening situation. This refers to a legal term in which Japan’s self-defense forces would be deployed in the event of an attack on a nearby ally. This means that Japan would ally with Taiwan, providing military defense in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Takaichi’s comments continue to strain China-Japan relations. As Japan’s and China’s tensions rise further, the United States, a strong ally to Japan and Taiwan, tries to maintain those alliances as well as strengthen its relationship with China. In response, both Japanese Prime Minister Taikichi and Chinese President Xi held calls with US President Donald Trump to ensure peace. Though all calls were reported as successful, the potential allyship with the United States is unclear for Taiwan. Despite Trump’s and Xi’s improved relations, the United States has stated its support of Taiwan much more indirectly. Trump still aims to build defense in the US, Japan, and South Korea, prioritizing defense and preventing aggression.

Tensions between China and Taiwan keep rising in areas meant for cooperation. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) faced criticism from both sides. China objected to Taiwan taking part, even though Taiwan has long joined these regional meetings. Taiwan took issue with China’s attempts to use the forum to impose political conditions and undermine Taiwan’s status as an equal participant.

Conclusion

Taiwan is at a standstill with both internal and external issues. Pressure from China continues to grow. The government must also deal with its challenges at home by adapting new leadership and fighting corruption. At the same time, conflicts and debates rise on the international stage. The Cabinet must manage the ongoing conflict while responding to the new challenges it presents.

Bibliography

1. Ben Blanchard, “‘Return’ to China not an option for Taiwan’s people, premier says responding to Xi,” Reuters, last updated November 24, 2025, www.reuters.com/world/china/return-china-not-an-option-taiwans-people-premier-says-2025-11-25/.
2. Brian Hioe, “As the TPP Gets a New Leader, What’s Next for Taiwan’s Latest Third Party?” The Diplomat, March 2025, thediplomat.com/2025/03/as-the-tpp-gets-a-new-leader-whats-next-for-taiwans-latest-third-party/.
3. Christopher Bodeen, “Former Taiwan presidential candidate suspected in corruption case is sent back to jail,” AP News, September 5, 2024, apnews.com/article/taiwan-corruption-ko-detention-cf2a8e014ffa81cb708e0570be7be7e2.
4. Jennifer Jett and Peter Guo, “Trump wades into China and Japan’s escalating dispute over Taiwan,” NBC News, November 25, 2025, www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/trump-china-japan-taiwan-xi-jinping-sanae-takaichi-military-response-rcna245801.
5. “MOFA solemnly condemns and refutes statements by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office aimed at undermining Taiwan’s participation in APEC,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of China (Taiwan), November 12, 2025, en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&sms=273&s=121094.
6.  “Ko Wen-je released on NT$70 million bail (update),” Focus Taiwan, September 8, 2025, focustaiwan.tw/politics/202509080016.
7. “Taiwan says senior Fijian UN diplomat visited, despite Fiji’s formal ties with China,” Reuters, last updated November 6, 2025, www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-says-senior-fijian-un-diplomat-visited-despite-fijis-formal-ties-with-2025-11-06/.
8. Trevor Hunnicutt, “Trump unveils strategy to prevent China conflict over Taiwan,” Reuters, last updated December 5, 2025, www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-unveils-strategy-prevent-china-conflict-over-taiwan-2025-12-05/.
9. Wu Wei, “Unseating the DPP should be a collective effort, Cheng Li-wun said in June interview with Global Times,” Global Times, October 20, 2025, www.globaltimes.cn/page/202510/1346071.shtml.