Introduction

The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, has continued to exercise significant control over the country. This is occurring amidst reports of violence and restrictions on political activity. Opposition is mounting from citizens, ethnic armed groups (EAGs), and members of the National League for Democracy, the party that won the 2021 elections. Myanmar began national elections on December 28, 2025, which have been the subject of debate regarding their fairness and credibility. Observers have noted that the electoral process and ongoing political tensions may have implications for regional stability and security.

Elections on December 28, 2025

Myanmar’s military junta has called for multi-phased elections. The first phase started on December 28, 2025. These elections have been called a sham and are reportedly a tool to validate the military’s rule after the 2021 coup. Opposition groups are either not allowed to participate, refuse to participate, or are stopping the elections from happening. Reports indicate that opposition parties face challenges, including detention, restrictions on political activity, and threats of violence.

The elections are also limited in geographic scope; for example, the first phase was conducted in 145 of 330 townships. Key political parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), have experienced leadership detentions and restrictions. This limits political competition and consolidates the current authorities’ control. Security challenges, restricted participation, and limited geographic coverage all raise concerns about the inclusiveness and overall accessibility of the electoral process.

The junta has imposed many obstacles against the opposition. For example, parties must now have at least 100,000 members, register in the Union Election Commission system within three months of the election, and raise funds of at least MMK 100 million (USD 45,500). This is a hundred times more than it cost in previous years. These requirements are to prevent small ethnic opposition parties from running and further harm election legitimacy.

As the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has said, “A free and fair election is not possible when opposition leaders are arrested, detained, tortured, or executed; when it is illegal to criticize the junta or the election; when journalists are in prison for having reported the truth.” According to this assessment, the conduct of elections under current conditions raises concerns about inclusiveness, political participation, and the protection of human rights.

Violence Caused by the Elections

The junta controls 21 percent of Myanmar. The remaining territories are controlled by different EAGs, which are in opposition to the military. Since the elections were announced, these EAGs have made it difficult for the junta to take control of those territories and hold the elections. In response, the Tatmadaw has conducted airstrikes and attacks to regain power. This has caused deaths and destruction in the name of “peace.” The military government has stated that a second phase of elections is scheduled for January 11, 2026, which is intended to cover the townships that were not included in the first phase of elections.

Rakhine State is controlled by one of the biggest EAGs, the Arakan Army. In September 2025, an overnight attack on a boarding school in Rakhine State killed and injured students as they slept. The attack was allegedly carried out by the junta’s forces. Such incidents have heightened insecurity and disrupted daily life, including access to education, and may affect civilians’ ability to participate in political processes.

Nicholas Koumjian, Head of the Independent Investigative Mechanisms for Myanmar, indicated that the ongoing conflict includes aerial bombardments and attacks that have affected civilians in areas outside the central government’s control. As this is during preparations for elections, it contributes to the insecure environment that may undermine the electoral process.

Conclusion

These elections lack international credibility. Most candidates are tied to the military junta, like the Union Solidarity and Development Party, or are approved by it. A legitimate election is needed to restore democracy in Myanmar. The violence facing civilians is inhumane and results from the military’s takeover against the will of the people. Yet, addressing this crisis means considering Myanmar’s history, culture, and geography to create effective solutions.

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