Historical Crisis 2026 Update Brief: Sovereignty, Reform, and the Meiji Restoration
Introduction
In 1868, Japan began to change into a more modern state after the Meiji government won the Boshin War. The war left many problems unsolved, as fighting, foreign support, and new laws shaped the years that followed. At the same time, Japan faced strong pressure at home, including the end of the samurai system, food shortages, and growing political tension. Together, these challenges shaped the new government and will guide debate during the committee.
Military Developments and the End of the Boshin War
The Boshin War began with the Battle of Toba-Fushimi, where 5,000 Meiji troops defeated a Tokugawa force of 15,000 soldiers. In July 1868, Meiji forces captured Edo, now Tokyo, which forced the Tokugawa leadership to give up control of the capital. This moment marked the end of shogunate rule and the start of the Meiji Restoration. The final stage of the war took place in Hokkaido from December 4, 1868, to June 27, 1869. During this period, 7,000 Meiji troops defeated 3,000 fighters from the Ezo Republic at the Goryōkaku fortress in Hakodate. The Tokugawa surrendered on June 27, 1869, bringing an end to all armed resistance against the Meiji government.
Imperial forces used Western tactics, rifles, and ships, while shogunate troops continued to rely on samurai-based fighting methods. This difference in military strength pushed the Meiji government to speed up changes to its armed forces. As part of this effort, the regime began to consider a system of universal military service, where all eligible citizens are enlisted. Meiji forces also received two ships from the United States to move troops. This support showed the growing role of foreign powers in Japan. The ships helped troops move faster and increased the pace of the campaign in Hokkaido.
The Boshin War caused serious social problems. Under the old feudal system, lower- and middle-ranking samurai had few chances to move up. This led many to support change. After taking power, the Meiji government debated whether to reduce or end the role of the samurai. As rumors spread about ending the system, many samurai feared losing their jobs. Some found new positions in the Meiji government or military. Others held to tradition and joined anti-Meiji groups. This increased tensions within Japanese society. Meiji leaders now face the challenge of managing about two million samurai, who make up roughly 10 percent of Japan’s people. The cabinet must find a solution to prevent further trouble or rebellion.
As the government works to rebuild Honshu (the main island), it also seeks to centralize power. One plan is to replace old local regions with modern districts and set the same land tax rules for both cities and countryside. Previously under the Tokugawa Shogunate, taxes were paid in rice and other crops. The amounts changed based on the land’s yield and the overall harvest. The main farmer’s name was recorded in the land survey, and that person was responsible for paying the tax. Peasants constituted about 80 percent of the population. They had to feed everyone and also support the lifestyles of the samurai, daimyō (feudal lords), and the shogun. Farm laborers had little choice in their lives. The shogun’s government forbade them from working outside farming. Travel was also restricted, keeping peasants away from cities.
The country is now facing severe food shortages. Meiji ordered that 60 field workers be drafted into the military for every 50,000 bushels produced in each domain. Thus, the war disrupted Japan’s traditional farming system. Under the old system, rice was treated as a public crop and belonged to the shogun. In a normal harvest, Japan would produce about 125 million bushels. Daimyō collected 25 million bushels for the shogun and another 25 million for themselves.
Meiji’s plan to run the system from the central government creates new problems with distribution, which was previously handled by each domain. As a result, the government is attempting to adopt Western farming methods. Changes such as improved field ridges and reorganized land would allow farming with animals. Rice growing could shift from wet paddy fields to dry fields plowed by horses. This would improve soil use and make fertilizer work better. In a post-war setting, these changes are key to keeping the population from famine.
There is also tension among belief systems. The shogun encouraged fairness and merit. It had a rigid class structure that prevented class mobility. At that time, two factions began to form. Purists want a return to ancient Japanese values. They wish to distance Japan from Western, Confucian, and Buddhist influences. Progressives want to adopt foreign technologies, science, and medicine to develop the country. Tokugawa did not satisfy either group, so they combined to oppose that rule. This divide persists into the Meiji period.
Religion in Japan includes several beliefs. The oldest religion is Shinto. Shinto is native to Japan. Buddhism came to Japan in the sixth century. By the eighth century, Buddhism was widely practiced. Some people believed it worked well with Shinto. Additionally, Confucianism came from China around the same time. It did not become popular right away. During the Tokugawa Shogunate, Confucian schools were created. These schools taught order and peace. This was important during a time of conflict. Currently, Japanese values come from Shintoism, Buddhism, and Confucianism.
Christianity felt very foreign to the Japanese, as it came from the West. In 1549, Portuguese Jesuit missionaries arrived in Kagoshima. At first, their attempts at spreading Christianity were successful. The Tokugawa Shogunate opposed Christianity until its collapse. The government also passed laws to limit religion. Christian believers were punished and some were put to death if they refused to give up their faith. Even so, many Japanese Christians stayed loyal. They shared their beliefs by word of mouth. Religious rituals were practiced in secret for many years.
In 1637, many Christians lived in the southern city of Shimabara. They were unhappy with their Tokugawa rulers and felt mistreated because of their faith. This led them to rise against the government. To stop the revolt, the shogun asked for help from a Dutch gunboat. This worried the government, as it indicated that Japan was starting to rely on Western support in its domestic conflicts. The shogun also saw the rebellion as proof that Christianity could disturb peace. They responded by putting stricter limits on religious practices. Despite this, many devoted Christians remain. The Meiji government now faces the challenge of keeping peace among different faiths in Japan.
The merchant classes were experiencing great economic success, due to their money lending and contracts with the upper classes. However, the shogun imposed laws designed to restrict their wealth and exclude them from participating in politics. Merchants then organized themselves into monopolistic guilds. They wanted to protect their interests and positions in a hostile environment. Despite the government’s attempts to reduce the power of merchants, their influence increased due to the guilds. The Meiji cabinet must consider whether to abolish these laws. They may consider re-evaluating the class system that has long placed merchants at the bottom of the hierarchy.
Economic Developments
Trade is also a large concern. The first Europeans to arrive in Japan were the Portuguese in the mid-sixteenth century. They were eager to trade with the Japanese market. For the next century, Japan participated in the Nanban trade, which referred to trade with southern states. However, the Tokugawa Shogunate eventually began to restrict trade. This was at the same time as its persecution of Japanese Christians. Both were part of a greater effort to reduce foreign influence.
In 1853, Commodore Matthew Perry of the United States Navy arrived in Edo Bay. He was accompanied by American warships. He then demanded that the Tokugawa Shogunate open its ports to American traders. If not, he threatened to fire on and destroy Edo. The Japanese government had no choice but to agree to his demands. This was formalized in the signing of the Kanagawa Treaty.
Japan is now open to trade, and the Meiji Cabinet can oversee foreign influence in its markets. Other countries bring goods that support Japan’s growth, but the country must balance this with its own independence. The shogun’s long opposition to trade had wide effects. After years of isolation, Japan remains cautious of outsiders, as Western powers could pressure the country into unfair deals. However, outside industry could help Japan. Foreign countries have stronger transport, armies, and technology. Japan could gain knowledge by letting foreigners work in the country, though some see this as a threat to independence. Japanese officials could also travel abroad to study foreign industries. This approach would lower Japan’s reliance on outside advisors. At the same time, foreign experts could help build shipyards and railroads.
Public opinion on outside influence is volatile. Negative sentiment could erupt into violence if not managed. This would destabilize the cabinet. The government must relate trade to national strength, not submission. Japan can modernize on its own terms if it trades carefully. Eventually, it can reclaim full control over its diplomacy.
The country has had significant political changes and its government structure has shifted. Meiji centralized power over domains. Satsuma, Chōshū, Tosa, and Hizen gave up control of their lands to the emperor in exchange for representation. The new Seitaishō system has a separation of powers. Inspired by Western countries, it shows growing foreign influence in Japan. The government has adopted the Fuhanken Sanchisei system to divide land into urban (fu) and rural prefectures (ken). As the shogun’s rule ended, so did the segregation of rural and urban workers. This led to increased social mobility. Migration contributed to the rising population of Japan’s cities. Peasants were attracted by the promise of better employment and modern comforts.
Meiji wants to pass laws favoring industry. They incentivize building factories, boosting the economy of urban areas. However, concentrating power in cities ignores rural populations. Officials can thus encourage farmers to diversify their harvests. They could grow crops for profit, like silk and tea. However, not all farmers can shift to commercial farming, and many have disputes with landlords. Owners impose strict terms on tenant farmers. With a declining population, rural areas face an economic crisis. This could broaden into nationwide food shortages and needs the cabinet’s attention.
Supporting new industries would improve Japan’s economy. Textiles, mining, and metallurgy can create prosperity beyond agriculture. Early official investment is needed in the early stages to establish this. Over time, privatization may create a competitive domestic market. These resources could be used to build railroads and telegraph lines. This would help compete with foreign goods. A strong economy can improve the country’s buying power. This would allow it to buy goods it does not have.
Meiji created the Daijōkan (Great Council of State) to pass laws. It is split into two parts. The Upper Assembly is made up of bureaucrats. The Lower Assembly is made up of domain representatives. It includes units such as the Executive, Shinto, Finance, Military, Foreign Affairs, and Civil Affairs departments.
Members of the committee may have different interests. Those opposed to central power may work with the Lower Assembly to preserve domain autonomy. Those in high society may work with the Upper Assembly. Emperor Meiji is the face of the new government. The Daijōkan handles daily governance of the country. However, real political power is held by twenty oligarchs in the emperor’s court. These people from the Satsuma, Chōshū, Tosa, and Hizen domains discreetly rose to power. They supported the restoration financially and militarily. No matter how the cabinet views the Daijōkan or who they favor, large actions will require cooperation across the entire structure.
Conclusion
Meiji’s victory over the Ezo ended the old order. Military, political, and social change is happening across the country. Added foreign influence persists during this time. Reforms rely on the cabinet’s effective response to post-war troubles. As the Meiji cabinet seeks to forge a brighter future for Japan, the committee must be aware of these complexities when it gathers on June 27, 1869.
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